In the Cincinnati metro area, gas prices went up 10.4 cents a gallon in the past week, according to GasBuddy.com, which monitors oil and gasoline prices. The average local price is now $2.13 a gallon, while the national average is $2.11 a gallon, up 6.9 cents over last week.
Including the change in prices in Cincinnati during the past week, prices Sunday were 32.9 cents per gallon lower than the same day one year ago, and are 22.9 cents per gallon higher than a month ago.
In Butler County, gas still can be found cheaper than the metro average. The cheapest gas in Butler County could be found Monday for $1.84 a gallon at the Shell at Fairgrove Avenue near Campbell Drive in Hamilton.
“Over the short-term, Ohio prices will have cycles that jump, then decline,” DeHaan said. “But at the end of the day, motorists should see prices likely to be at their lowest level in the past 10 years.”
He said prices could go up because of maintenance projects at refineries.
DeHaan expects the price of gas in the region to be in the $2.50 range through Labor Day, with some fluctuations.
“The summertime peak (in southwest Ohio) will be lower this year,” DeHaan said. “The summer average from Memorial Day to Labor Day will be maybe 15 to 30 cents lower (than 2015), but we do have some more upward climbs at the pump that we’ll see before Memorial Day.”
Ohio likely has already seen its lowest gas prices of the year. The average price in the region in early February was $1.40.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationally is expected to average $2.04 this summer, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s a 22-percent drop from 2015, and would be the lowest average since 2004.
Two years ago, the average price per gallon was $3.59.
Monthly average prices nationally are expected to be $2.08 in June before falling to $1.93 in September. For the calendar year of 2016, the EIA predicts an average price of $1.94 per gallon nationally. That means the average household will spend $350 less on gasoline than in 2015, and about $1,000 less than in 2014.
“The (Energy Information Administration) is a little more optimistic than I am,” DeHaan said. “(Last week) for the first time in perhaps a few years, U.S. domestic oil production fell under 9 million barrels a day. So oil production is starting to decelerate quickly because of low oil prices.
“Coupled with the cheapest gas prices in Ohio in perhaps the last decade, it’s a recipe that oil supply could be absorbed very quickly by Americans this summer. I’m more pessimistic that next year we’ll probably see an increase from 10 to 30 cents higher (than the national average).”
DeHaan pointed to last year’s price swings as an example of the volatility in the Midwest, which he said is tied to prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
“The regional supply of gasoline was through the roof (earlier this year) and that’s how it got so low,” DeHaan said. “Just as quickly this summer there could be a regional problem that would affect only the Great Lakes.
“Just remember what happened last August when BP went down unexpectedly and prices shot up 80 cents a gallon overnight.”
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