Here’s a look at the partisan turnout in Butler and Warren counties as of Monday:
• Four times as many Democrats have voted this year in Butler and Warren counties compared to 2014, the last gubernatorial election. Nearly as many Democrats have turned out for this election as they did in 2016 when voter turnout was significantly higher due to the presidential race.
• Republicans are coming out in greater numbers than Democrats. In Warren County, they have a near 4-to-1 advantage, but in Butler County — the seventh largest county in Ohio — they have roughly a 2½-to-1 advantage. Just four years ago, Republicans in Butler County had a 5-to-1 advantage over Democrats.
• Democrats appear to be voting at a higher clip. In Warren County, nearly as many Democrat voters have cast ballots in the 2018 gubernatorial election as were cast early in the 2016 presidential election. In Butler County, Democrats are 2,354 voters off the pace of the 2016 presidential election for this year's gubernatorial election. Republicans are more than 6,500 votes off their pace over the same time frame.
• Independent and third-party voters will likely decide this election. Independent, or non-affiliated, voters are the largest voting block in nearly half of voting Americans. That's higher in Ohio and in Butler and Warren counties. In Ohio, 58.2 percent are classified as non-affiliated, or independent voters. In Butler County, they make up 62.7 percent of registered voters and in Warren County it's 56.4 percent.
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