The Philadelphia Phillies (71-67), who trail the Reds and Padres by two games, have an 8.4 percent chance. The St. Louis Cardinals (69-68), who are 3½ games back of the Reds and Padres, have a 2.8 percent chance.
The Reds and Cubs conclude their three-game series at 7:40 p.m. Wednesday at Wrigley Field. The Reds then start a three-game series on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday. The Reds lead the season series against the Cardinals 9-7.