The youth will impact the ‘16 election

BY THE NUMBERS

Source: Miami University political science professor Clyde Brown

Young voters helped bring President Barack Obama to the White House in the 2008 election, and kept him there following the 2012 election.

It’s estimated that Obama received around 65 percent of the youth vote — which are voters from 18 to 29 years old — in 2008, and around 60 percent in 2012. These voters make up about a fifth of voting-eligible citizens, and according to national polls, the group leans Democratic by about 10 percent, said Miami University political science professor Clyde Brown.

Voter turnout among young voters was relatively high — around 50 percent — in the 1972 presidential election, where President Richard Nixon dominated Sen. George McGovern by receiving 18 million more popular votes and only lost in Massachusetts and in the District of Columbia.

But voter turnout generally declined among youth voters until 2008 (with an exception in 1992). It was around 50 percent in 2008.

College Democrats and College Republicans will be deeply involved in the political positioning for support of this potential game-changing demographic.

Ohio College Republican Federation Chairman Christian Pancake said his group made 10 to 15 percent of the contacts in Ohio in 2014, and will continue those grassroots efforts in 2016 and with Sen. Rob Portman’s re-election campaign. Portman will face the winner of the Democratic Party’s March primary where former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is competing against Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld for the party’s nomination.

While grassroots efforts are a key part of the College Republican’s strategy, Pancake said they will focus on Get Out the Vote efforts and going door-to-door on college campuses, realizing college students are more liberal on many of the social issues and topics. But they want to highlight items “that affect them more on a day-to-day basis” — taxes, college debt and getting a job after college.

“We want to have more of a presence on campus and say here’s how Republican ideas and policies affect you now and in the future,” he said.

Matt Ziegman, membership director of the College Democrats of Ohio, calls the youth vote “very critical” in electing Democrats in 2016, and much like the Republicans, grassroots campaigning will be key. They said their focus is on canvassing and phone banks.

“Going back to 2008 and 2012, they basically gave Obama the election,” he said. “We think the vote is very important, and we’re making sure the students are mobilized.”

Ziegman, who is also the treasurer for Miami University’s College Democrats, said he believes students realize the importance of voting and that they “can make a difference.”

When young voters turn out to the polls, “Democrats win,” said Jocelyn Bucaro, Butler County Democratic Party executive chairwoman. She said young voters will play a “pivotal role” in the 2016 presidential election.

“We anticipate a similar surge in youth voters next year who are frustrated with the lack of action on issues important to them, but feel a tremendous stake in the outcome,” she said. “The issues next year, including economic expansion for everyday Americans, combating climate change, and college affordability, are the very issues young people care most about.”

But Butler County Republicans believe the momentum from the 2014 elections, where they secured a sweep in the statewide elections — which included Gov. John Kasich’s re-election — will carry over, and the College Republicans at Miami University will be “a great help.” But Miami University student’s won’t be the only young voters helping the Republicans, said Butler County GOP Executive Chairman Todd Hall.

“Our party works closely attracting millennials in our county and region, and we value their input, effort and support at the polls,” he said. “Younger voters want to make a difference and and see the importance of fiscal responsibility and more efficient government for America’s future.”

But Brown points out that the youth aren’t particularly interested in partisan politics currently being played out in Washington, D.C.

“There is some suggestion that they want transformational candidates, such as Obama,” the Miami professor said.

The question of whether the current field of Democratic presidential candidates will do as well as Obama did with young voters in 2016 probably won’t be answered until closer to the election. But Brown said “match-up matters.”

“It will matter who the candidates are in 2016,” he said. “Are the candidates attractive to young voters — one or both major party candidates? Are there candidates that will get them excited enough to participate in the 2016 election?”

Brown said one of the important questions for the youth to answer in the 2016 presidential race is what excites them: the possibility of a first female president, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, a self-avowed outsider, a young candidate or Donald Trump.