GOP split
Many leading Republicans say they will not vote for Donald Trump. Here is a partial list.
Gov. John Kasich: Has yet to say if he will vote for Trump, but has refused to endorse him.
Former Ohio Attorney General Betty Montgomery: Will not vote for Trump.
Meg Whitman, chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard and a 2010 GOP gubernatorial candidate in California: Says she will vote for Clinton.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine: Will not vote for Trump, but may write in a name.
Former First Lady Barbara Bush: Will not vote for Trump.
Former Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush: Will not vote for either Trump or Clinton.
Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: Will not vote for Trump.
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With many Republican women in Ohio and across the country objecting to the tone of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, the Republican Party is facing the kind of divisiveness not seen since 1964 when Barry Goldwater lost 44 states to President Lyndon B. Johnson.
Although Ohio Gov. John Kasich has emerged as among the more notable Trump critics, the Republican revolt has been sparked in large part by GOP women, including Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, former California gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, former Ohio Attorney Betty Montgomery, and former first lady Barbara Bush who last February said she did not “know how women can vote” for Trump.”
Republican state Sen. Shannon Jones of Springboro will not vote for Trump, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez has declined to endorse Trump, while last January, Katie Packer, a top adviser to 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, launched a super political action committee aimed at opposing Trump.
“Women saw through him faster than men,” said Mary Anne Sharkey, a political consultant in Cleveland who has worked for both political parties. “He’s like everybody’s nightmare of a boyfriend or a husband.”
Liz Mair, a Republican consultant in Virginia who formed a super-PAC to oppose Trump, said in an e-mail: “No offense to men, but it seems to have taken them a whole lot longer than us girls to clue up,” adding “men might have bought what the snake-oil salesman was pitching, but very few of us did.”
Suburban Republican women are key
A Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton winning 54 percent of the votes of women in Ohio compared to 39 percent for Trump, suggesting suburban women are turning away from the GOP nominee.
Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign chairman, said Trump will do well in the suburban areas. He said the fact that Clinton is boosting ad spending in Ohio and Pennsylvania shows that the campaign feels threatened by Trump.
"We expect to do very well in the suburbs, which will help us to carry Pennsylvania," Manafort said. "The demographics are very positive for Donald Trump and the issue agenda favors Donald Trump."
But, polls show that Trump is not getting the same level of support from Republican women as recent GOP nominees.
According to the New York Times, in late July, 72 percent of Republican women said they would vote for Trump: a healthy majority, but far below the level won by the past three Republican presidential nominees. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 93 percent of Republican women. In 2008, John McCain won 89 percent, and four years earlier, George W. Bush won 93 percent.
The opposition from women has spread throughout the party with Romney saying he would not vote for Trump, Kasich and state Auditor David Yost yet to endorse the New York real estate developer, and former Republican Sen. Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire telling NBC News this month he believes Trump is a “sociopath, without a conscience or feelings of guilt, shame or remorse.”
Former Republican congressman David Hobson of Springfield, who acknowledges he has concerns about Trump, said he is “getting hit from all sides — women, guys, everybody. They don’t know where to go. Almost every Republican despises Hillary. They don’t want to vote for her. But Donald Trump is an embarrassment to them.”
LeeAnn Johnson, co-chair of Ohio Women for Trump Coalition, said “most women in Ohio have no idea who Meg Whitman or Susan Collins are, and we certainly don’t look to them for advice when picking our next president.”
“Donald Trump is a recognized business leader long known for promoting women to top positions in his company far before that became the norm,” Johnson said. “His daughter Ivanka inspired many with her speech at the RNC convention and with her focus on childcare and other issues important to working families during this campaign.”
In addition, Trump just revised his campaign staff, naming Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway as the new campaign manager.
Downticket Republicans are in a ‘tough situation’
For the Republicans, this political year is approaching something of a calamity. Since the Goldwater debacle when Republicans such as New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller refused to back him, the party has united behind every nominee since.
The growing fear is as the party fractures, Republican candidates for other offices may lose, much like 1964 when Republicans lost a stunning 36 seats in the U.S. House.
A number of Republicans facing re-election, such as Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, have said they plan to support Trump. But Portman said Wednesday “we’re running our independent campaign,” adding he does not “focus on the presidential (race) because this is a Senate race.”
“Rob is in a tough situation,” Sharkey said. “He is on the ballot. He needs the white guys who are going to vote for Trump to vote for him.”
Although Trump has won a loyal following with his take-no-prisoners approach, he has delivered a lengthy catalogue of caustic comments about women. Last year Trump mocked Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina by saying, “Look at that face: Would anyone vote for that?”
In a speech last week in Youngstown, Trump asserted Clinton “lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on” the Islamic State militants, prompting some analysts to wonder if Trump was saying as a woman Clinton is weak or whether he was referring to a blood clot and concussion she suffered in 2012.
Instead, Trump has focused his campaign on opposition to international trade agreements and returning America to greatness, a message aimed directly toward blue-collar white voters scattered throughout eastern and southeastern Ohio.
But an analysis by Mike Dawson, creator of OhioElectionResults.com, shows how difficult it will be for Trump to carry Ohio without expanding his appeal. During last March’s presidential primary, Trump carried 31 counties across the state, many along the Ohio River. Trump lost the March election to Kasich.
In 2012, Romney won 462,623 votes in those same 31 counties compared to 407,178 for President Barack Obama. If Trump does 10 percentage points better than Romney did in those counties, he would pick up an additional 177,000 votes – which could allow him to carry the state, but only if he does as well Romney did in the rest of Ohio, a performance Dawson said is “unlikely.”
Jones said “obviously I am deeply concerned about the example that Mr. Trump is setting as it relates to women. But in terms of my decision not to support him, I wasn’t thinking about it in terms of, ‘Gee, I am woman and I have a responsibility to behave in a certain way.’ ”
Pointing out she has a 17-year-old son and a 12-year-old daughter, Jones said “we teach our children that sexism and racism are wrong and should not be tolerated. Bullying is not acceptable. How on Earth can I stand here and teach these values to my children” and then vote for Trump.
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