APRIL TO JUNE 2013 CASINO TAX PAYOUTS
Butler: $1.156 million
Hamilton: $1.25 million
Warren: $678,004
Source: Ohio Department of Taxation
Ohio’s four casinos aren’t delivering the big payouts to counties that state experts once predicted.
State tax experts projected— before the four casinos in Ohio’s biggest cities had all opened their doors — that a 33 percent casino tax the state collects would bring roughly $5.6 million to Butler County’s budget, County Administrator Charlie Young said. All 88 counties across the state get a slice of that 33 percent tax based on the county’s census population.
Delayed casino openings and the difficulty to track gambling trends statewide have foiled predictions that millions in cash would follow to counties across the state, said Brad Cole, the director of research at the County Commissioners’ Association, which works with counties across the state. The Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati, which has planned a late 2012 opening, didn’t open until March 2013, for example.
Butler County budgeted what they believed to be a conservative figure of $4 million in this year’s budget for casino revenue; as of July, Young said the county had collected $30,000 shy of their target.
“We’re just a little bit down, and we really mean a little bit,” Young said.
But the county isn’t counting on getting more revenue off the casino tax for next year, despite all four of the casinos being operational next year. Butler County Commissioners will vote Monday on a tax budget that keeps expected casino revenue at $4 million, even after initial projections of $1.6 million more than that.
Warren County was told to expect $3.8 million in casino revenues once all of the gambling sites were up and running. The county budgeted conservatively at $2 million for 2013 and 2014, on track with the $1.1 million the county received by June 30. Those revenues can be tricky to rely on because they depend on people coming to Ohio to gamble, instead of going elsewhere, such as neighboring Indiana, which boasts casinos.
“Where are people going to gamble? Are they going to go here, are they going to the casinos, are they going to Indiana? Who knows,” Warren County Auditor Nick Nelson said. “We’re not putting a whole lot of stock in those early numbers.”
A 2009 memo from Ohio’s Office of Budget Management showed the state planned to take in at least $239.6 million annually, or roughly $59.9 million quarterly, from casino tax to distribute to counties. Last quarter, from April to June and with all casinos up and running for the first time, the state only distributed $36 million to counties.
Tax experts from across the state have had trouble pinning down how much casinos will boost local budgets, Cole said. His association was one that posted a study showing that counties would make millions of dollars more from the casino tax revenue.
“To be totally truthful, all of the estimates, including the estimates we put out, all of the estimates that I’ve seen have been off the mark; they haven’t been accurate,” Cole said.
The revenues could get even worse, according to Cole. By next year, seven racinos across Ohio, including one in Dayton and another in Warren County, are set to open and Cole believes that will mean a 27 percent dip in Casino revenue. A 2009 state Office of Budget Management memo backs that claim. Those racinos will only pay taxes to school districts and counties won’t get a cut from the tax.
Cole cautioned counties to remain conservative in their estimates for casino revenue. Earlier this week state reports revealed Ohio casino revenues were down $3.5 million in June compared to the month before.
“We tried to caution (the counties) to take all of this with a grain of salt,” Cole said. “On this issue, I don’t think anyone’s got a firm handle.”
Warren County Administrator Dave Gully said they halved the expected revenue for next year, knowing casino cash is iffy.
“We know it’s going to be something, it’s not going to go down zero. We budget conservatively but not that conservatively. The odds are it’s going to be something. If you cut it in half that’s pretty significant…,” Gully said. “It’s a gamble.”
Warren County Commissioner Dave Young also noted that adding additional gambling dens doesn’t necessarily mean more people will start gambling or that those who do will wager more.
“There is only so much disposable income in the state that people are going to gamble with,” Young said. “Because there are four new betting venues in southern Ohio doesn’t mean I’m going to take my $100 or whatever I’m comfortable gambling, and say now that there’s four venues I’m going to lose $200 a month. It doesn’t work that way.”
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