After a busy November, what can we expect from December weather?

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

Caption
Sky 7: Aerial views of storm damage in Celina

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

November is known for it’s active weather across the Great Lakes, and this year was no exception.

The month started with a bang with 17 tornado touchdowns and record rainfall reported in Ohio on the first weekend. Just two weeks later, another intense storm system brought 50 mph wind gusts and severe storms back into the state. It is easy to see where the term “Gales of November” came from.

MORE FROM NOVEMBER TORNADOES

Despite the severe storms, November 2017 will go down as unseasonably cool with temperatures for the month averaging more than a degree below normal. All the rain we had kept the temperatures down and pushed the year into the top 10 for wettest years on record for the region.

For those that took advantage of the last weekend of the month to do some decorating for Christmas, don’t expect conditions to start looking like Christmas anytime soon, at least weather-wise. Now with the La Nina pattern kicking into gear, we may be in store for an active December, at least eventually. It also appears we are in store for a mild start to the new month.

The long-range models that take us into the first two weeks of December show a strong likelihood of temperatures staying above normal for the first week to 10 days of the month. Then, expect the trough that had been present across the eastern half of the country through much of November to set back up for the middle of the month.

It is also interesting to note that the overall weather pattern and storm track appear to start the month quite benign. While we will get some rain chances with weak systems, it appears the pattern will be pretty void of any major storm systems in our region. This will be the case due to a persistent high-pressure system across the southwestern United States getting shunted eastward into the central U.S. This will likely keep major storm systems north or south of the Ohio Valley for at least the next week.

The weather pattern may get a bit more active during the second half of the month as blocking in the jet stream in eastern Canada and Greenland force cold air to build in central Canada and eventually get shoved southward. We’ll likely start to notice the effects of the blocking beginning after Dec. 9 or 10 with temperatures beginning to push back below average.

Usually, as such a change gets underway, we can expect at least one major storm system to bring in the cold air. The question: will there be another system to impact us once the cold air is in place. Such a scenario would increase our chances for a white Christmas, but — at least at this point – it is way too early to know if the cards will fall into place at the right time.

About the Author