Both FiveThirtyEight’s models and betting markets give Trump about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election, about the same chance as the Chicago Cubs have of winning the World Series.
The Cubs trail the Indians three games to two in their best-of-seven series.
Cleveland still has the best odds overall, in no small part because the Indians only have to win one of the two remaining games while the Cubs must win both.
Chicago is favored in Game 6 tonight while the Indians are favored in a potential Game 7 on Wednesday night. Both of those figures are probably a result of the scheduled pitching matchup.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is still projected by 538 to have a roughly 75 percent chance of beating Trump when the nation's votes are tallied after the polls close on Election Day next week.
That is thanks to a combination of the latest poll results and other factors the site considers.
About the Author
