The dramatic spike is caused by a few different factors. One is the transition to summer gasoline, which typically runs more expensive.
Ohio gas stations and stations along the Great Lakes typically do “price cycling,” where they will continually undercut their competitors every few days, consistently lowering their prices by a few cents, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“Inevitably though, when they have lowered prices too far, when stations are starting to sell gasoline at cost, they will restore their profit margin. And that’s generally when prices will go up anywhere from 25 to 35 cents a gallon,” De Haan said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced cuts over the weekend that pushed up the cost of a gallon of gas for Americans. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers announced on Sunday they would further slash oil output of around 1.16 million barrels per day. Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak cited the Western banking crisis as reason for the cut, as well as “interference with market dynamics,” or American price caps on Russian oil, Reuters reported Monday.
OPEC’s decision came in the middle of the gas station price cycle, as distributors are restoring their profit margins, De Haan said, adding that it’s “a big bite,” for consumers.
Prices may start to go down by the weekend, De Haan said.
“If you’re not in a rush to fill, if every station’s at $3.75, try and hold off, because we could see prices at some stations back below $3.70 a gallon,” he said.
Conversely, if you can find gas lower than that, now’s the time to fill up.
Ohio gas prices are projected to inch towards $4 a gallon heading into the summer. However, prices may come down after Memorial Day, as the Cynovus refinery in Toledo, formerly owned by BP, is scheduled to reopen in May.
The refinery was shut down in September 2022 after a fire killed two employees, and subsequently sold to Cynovus last year.
“Absent some major developments, I’m hopeful that gas prices may not hit four dollars in Dayton. “If we do hit four dollars it might happen between mid-May and mid-June,” De Haan said.
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