Democrats weigh referendum on Ohio congressional redistricting

Any map passed in November (but not in October) would be subject to a voter referendum, which could be spurred by collecting about 248,000 voter signatures across the state in the 90 days after the map is signed into law. Democrats, including U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-NY, are weighing such a step.

“I spoke with Leader Jeffries; he contacted me over the weekend,” Antonio told reporters. “…They are investigating what it would take to launch a referendum, should it come to that. They are very supportive and understand how important Ohio is to the congressional caucus, so they’re looking at every option and every opportunity to be supportive.”

Tuesday’s redistricting commission meeting featured no public debate nor discernible signs of progress in the private discussions that have purportedly been held between Republican and Democratic legislative leaders. There wasn’t — and hasn’t been, at the time of reporting — a schedule set for when the commission will meet again.

Commission co-chair Rep. Brian Stewart, R-Ashville, told reporters the two parties have been meeting behind the scenes for weeks, and “the ball is kind of in the Democrats’ court to decide what deal they are or are not willing to take.”

“I don’t think it’s any secret that Republicans in our caucus generally think that we could have a map that includes some additional seats that Republicans could be competitive in,” he said. “Democrats have drawn a line in the sand and said, ‘We want seven seats.’ So, the compromise is somewhere in that range.”

Ohio’s Congressional delegation currently consists of 10 elected Republicans and five Democrats. However, when the current map was drawn in 2021 and passed by Republicans, the districts were expected, on paper, to give the GOP an even greater advantage.

Stewart singled out tightly contested districts currently held by U.S. Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo; Greg Landsman, D-Cincinnati; and Emilia Sykes, D-Akron.

On Landsman’s district, which includes part of Hamilton County and the whole of Warren County, Stewart said, “I think that’s exactly the kind of seat that is probably at issue in these discussions happening between the legislative leaders.”

“I think there’s a lot of members of the Republican caucus that have a similar view that we’d like to see a map that reflects the fact that Ohio Republicans have won 19 of the last 20 statewide elections, that we have been increasing our vote total in every presidential election over the last ten years. That is certainly a factor in deciding how this goes,” Stewart said.

Democrats argued again that Ohio’s congressional districts, on paper, should mirror the state’s overall political disposition. Over the past 10 years, the average vote split between Republican and Democratic candidates in statewide elections is 55% to 45%, and Democrats use that figure to back up the fairness of their proposed eight-to-seven map.

But that rule, known as proportionality, is not in any way a part of the congressional redistricting process laid out by the Ohio Constitution, which was updated by voter approval in 2018.

Should a partisan map be adopted in November, the Ohio Constitution states, it will be up for review by the Ohio Supreme Court, which has a six-to-one Republican advantage. The court must ensure the partisan map does not “unduly” favor a political party, that the map doesn’t unduly split local governmental units, and that the legislature at least attempted to draw compact districts.

This outlet asked Antonio if she had any idea what Republicans’ ideal map might look like.

“We’ve all heard rumors about taking our congressional seats down from the five that the Democrats hold right now, taking them down to two, taking them down to three,” Antonio said. “We don’t know because we’ve not seen a map. So we just don’t know.”