The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump's import taxes, contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.
The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to schedule a 90-day negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would've faced additional direct costs of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and those that do.
Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”
The president has indicated he'll set tariff rates given the logistical challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he'd reached a deal with Vietnam, while India has signaled it's close to agreeing on a trade framework.
Trump said on his social media site Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on all goods sent “into our Territory” and a 40% tariff on any transshipping, which usually means exports that come from China but pass through Vietnam to dodge tariffs on Chinese goods.
In return, Vietnam will grant the U.S. “TOTAL ACCESS” to its market for trade, Trump said, meaning “we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.” He added he thinks SUVs “will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam.”
There's a growing body of evidence suggesting more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report it expects companies to pass 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’ inflation expectations to say companies could on average pass along roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.
The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest the tariffs could cause some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers of goods. But it noted companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and wholesalers and retailers already operate on such low profit margins they might need to spread the tariffs' costs to their customers.
The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” on Tuesday the concessions from the trade talks have impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.
The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.
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