‘Prediction professor’ forecasts Trump impeachment

While Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election over Hillary Clinton caught many prognosticators off-guard, a Washington, D.C.-based professor said he was not surprised.
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Allan Lichtman said that Trump's victory was inevitable, based on the premise that elections are "primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power." Lichtman, an American political historian and professor of history who teaches at American University, has predicted the correct outcome of every presidential election since 1984 (except for 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). His book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, uses a historically based system of keys to predict election results ahead of time.

Since he’s on a roll, Lichtman is making another prediction: that Trump would be impeached by a Republican Congress that prefers his vice president, Mike Pence.
 “This (prediction) is not based on a system; it's just my gut,” Lichtman told the Washington Post. “They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Lichtman actually the only person forecasting a Trump impeachment;  the New York Times’ David Brooks suggested that such a scenario — or a resignation—was “probably” in the cards sometime within the next year.

Lichtman's presidential predictions are based upon 13 true-false questions, he told the Post.  He scoffs at polls, calling them “snapshots that simulate an election.”
“They are abused and misused as predictors,” he told the Post. “Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.
“For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst,” Lichtman said.

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