This year alone, food prices across the United States are forecast to jump 3 percent, nearly in line with the historical average of 2.6 percent during the past two decades. USDA said despite the surge in meats, overall food prices are being kept in check by lower-than-normal increases in breads, cereals and other packaged goods
“A consumer will see above average inflation in the perimeter of the supermarket, but in the center aisles containing non-perishables and processed foods, it’s actually below average inflation,” USDA agricultural economist Annemarie Kuhns said.
From 2012-2014, the average ground beef price per pound jumped 34 percent to $4.01. The price for center cut, bone-in pork chops per pound went up 14 percent to $4.35.
The reason for high beef prices? Herd sizes are at historic lows similar to the early 1950s.
“It has to do with the drought, which has increased the cost of feeding the cattle, giving them water and even hosing them down to keep them cool,” Kuhns said.
Pork prices continue to be high due to the widespread of the deadly porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus.
The other perimeter item seeing an increase in price is citrus fruits. The price of navel oranges are up 14 percent since August of 2012, to $1.47 per pound.
“Florida is on track to have the lowest orange crop since about 1990, due to a widespread greening disease which is causing the fruits to fall off the trees prematurely,” Kuhns said.
Cheaper or steadier prices are found on those items a person would typically find in the center aisles of the grocery store.
Peanut butter prices are down 13 percent since August of 2012, to $2.42 a pound. Coffee dropped nine percent to $5.17 a pound. Potato chip prices were down nine percent as well, to $4.44 per 16 ounce bag.
“Overall In 2014, we are expecting food price inflation to be about 2.5 to 3.5 percent. To put it in perspective, the 20 year historical average is about 2.6 percent, so it’s roughly in line,” said Kuhn.
The average household will spend $102.87 on groceries a week in 2014, according to data from The Food Marketing Institute’s survey of U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends.
More consumers are invested in health and wellness when they shop, the FMI report showed.
Twenty-eight percent look for minimally processed foods, 26 percent will only shop for items that contain ingredients that they know, 25 percent look for locally grown or produced foods, and 25 percent say they shop for items that have the shortest list of ingredients, according to the survey.
Will the higher prices on some foods impact how consumers shop?
“The higher price of beef absolutely has an impact on shoppers’ food budgets,” said Bill Wood, Wright State University lecturer and director of the financial services department.
Consumer are either buying less, or they are cutting back on other items to be able to afford meat, said Wood.
“It reinforces the issue that shoppers need to have a budget and stick to it. If you have to have a greasy burger or bacon, stock up when it’s on sale and freeze it,” Wood said.
Meat lovers on a tight budget should also look into alternatives, like chicken or turkey, Wood added.
Food price improvements are expected in 2015.
“We are forecasting overall food price inflation to be about two or three percent, which is lower than the historical average,” Kuhn said.
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