Steven Shepard in Politico today says Ohio Gov. John Kasich may benefit from being one of the last Republicans to enter the presidential contest because any bump from his announcement will come right before the polls that determine who gets to be in the first debate on Aug. 6.
The polls must be published before 5 p.m. on Aug. 4.
"John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland," Shepard writes.
Shepard says that "Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the Aug. 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.
To qualify for the debate, candidates:
- Must meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and
- Must announce and register a formal campaign for president; and
- Must file all necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC); and
- Must have paid all necessary federal and state filing fees; and
- Must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.
The Aug. 6 debate will air live on Fox News Channel at 9 p.m. You can listen to it live on AM 1290 and News 95.7 WHIO Radio and stream it online at whio.com.