The economic outlook for the Greater Cincinnati metro area next year is one of slow recovery that may be influenced by policy and other outside factors, area economists say.

But that recovery is projected to outpace growth on the national level, according to the Regional Economic Advisory Committee of Cincinnati USA Partnership and Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

The 2012 outlook for the area, which includes Butler and Warren counties, was presented today at the NKU METS Center in Erlanger, Ky.

The Cincinnati USA Partnership is the economic development arm for the region of the Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber. Under the JobsOhio Network, it leads economic development activities across the region.

The annual outlook predicts improvements in most of the region’s key economic indicators, including gross regional product, manufacturing employment, and unemployment.

Economic growth is expected to progress slowly but surely, barring negative influence from outside events, according to Richard Stevie, economic advisory committee chair and vice president of forecasting for Integral Analytics.

“The thing to keep in mind is the uncertainty we face from a policy perspective as well as some other major factors out there,” Stevie said. “There are some significant uncertainties to keep in mind.”

Part of those uncertainties include the economic uncertainty in Europe, the trajectory of oil prices and what happens in regard to the fiscal cliff and reduction of the federal budget deficit.

“Because of the significant upside and downside risks, this is probably not a forecast that’s going to happen,” Stevie said. “If they (various economic uncertainties) don’t go well, then we could be in for a lot slower economic conditions, and if it goes well, it could be a lot stronger because it removes that uncertainty from the economy.”

For the past 10 years, U.S. GDP growth has outpaced Cincinnati’s GRP growth by about 1 percent a year. That’s a loss of $8.8 billion or $4,100 per person, according to the outlook.

Cincinnati metro area’s gross regional product growth is predicted to surpass the rest of the nation in 2013, climbing from 2.3 percent in 2012 to 2.4 percent in 2013 compared to the country’s projected 2.3 percent growth in 2013.

“These are really moderate, slow growth numbers,” Stevie said, calling it a “middle of the road” forecast. “It’s nothing to be excited about as far as economic growth and I think … given those uncertainties and where we’ve come from, this slow growth this year and next year seems to make sense.”

The expectation of regional growth is based primarily on Cincinnati’s labor market rebound, which has been outpacing the national labor market overall, according to the outlook.

Cincinnati also is outpacing the national level when it comes to manufacturing jobs. Locally, jobs in that sector are predicted to increase by 6 percent in 2012, but drop back to 3.8 percent in 2013, according to the outlook.

Still, those gains are expected to help offset a loss of 6,600 jobs from the sector at its peak prior to the recession’s start five years ago.

Nearly all the growth in the area’s manufacturing sector has occurred in durable goods, which has regained more than 98 percent of its pre-recession jobs compared to less than 90 percent among the non-durable goods sectors, according to the report.

The 2012 outlook projects the region’s unemployment rate to end this year at 7.5 percent and drop to 7.2 percent next year.

For the past decade, U.S. employment growth has outpaced that of the Cincinnati area, according to the forecast. Like GDP, that is projected to change in 2013.

Total employment for the Cincinnati metro area is estimated to increase by 1.7 percent in 2012 and forecast to increase 1.9 percent in 2013.

While the number of jobs is expected to increase, the rate of growth will vary across industry sectors, according to the outlook.

“There are still headwinds in the broader economy, to be sure,” said Chris Kemper, spokesman for the Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber. “But when you compare our region’s 2013 outlook to that of the nation, you see that our forecast is better in each metric.”

The Cincinnati metro area has, in the past year, seen itself outpace not only the nation but also markets with which it competes, both in size and proximity, Kemper said.

“For the first time since data was tracked in 1990, we have the most jobs of any region in Ohio,” he said. “There are a lot of reasons for optimism.”

The annual report also notes gains made in the local real estate market, with sales in the four counties of southwest Ohio — Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont — up 16,8 percent from a year ago.

That’s the highest number of sales in five years.

In addition, the gross volume of homes sold increase 19.2 percent and the average sales price increase 2.1 percent.

“Housing, for all intents and purposes, looks like it has turned a corner,” Stevie said. “Housing prices are going up.”

Usually, when a nation emerges from a recession, it needs a resurgence in the housing and automobile sectors.

“Well, we’ve got autos,” Stevie said. “(Sales of) autos are growing. They’ve come back off the floor. It’s not running at what it was in 2006 and 2007, but they certainly have improved dramatically.”

Housing, until recent gains were made, had not, he said.

“I think that it (housing) has the real potential to move this economy forward in a way that we haven’t seen in several years,” Stevie said.

The report also shows private sector jobs in the region have rebounded to 97.4 percent of their pre-recession levels compared to 93.2 percent of government sector jobs. That’s slightly different than the national level, where government sector employment has regained 99 percent of pre-recession jobs, a larger percent than the private sector, which regained 96.5 percent.

Unlike other areas that saw job losses over the past five year, education and health services, a sector dominated by health care jobs, saw a 7.3 percent increase in the Cincinnati metro area from August 2007 to August 2012, just slightly behind the 11 percent employment growth enjoyed on the national level.

However, Cincinnati is outpacing national growth when it comes to the number of jobs in the professional and business services sector, according to the outlook. In August, the area’s jobs in that sector climbed above pre-recession numbers by 5.1 percent. In contrast, the nation remained mired at 99.7 percent in that sector.

Although home sales continues to improve, the construction sector is not expected to snap back to pre-recession employment levels anytime soon. As of August, there were still 2 million fewer jobs in construction, a 23.1 percent drop, than at the start of the recession. In Cincinnati, employment in that sector are behind pre-recession levels by 13,000 jobs or 24.5 percent.