The Golden Lamb in Lebanon has become a near-mandatory stop for Republicans running for president, with Mitt Romney on Saturday becoming the latest candidate to meet an enthusiastic crowd outside Ohio’s oldest inn.

But Romney’s visit – to a Warren County area he’s certain to win – may also be a symbol of a presidential race heading into the homestretch.

Saturday marked the 10th day since Sept. 1 that Romney has campaigned in Ohio, with many of the stops coming in southwest Ohio, one of his bases of support. And President Barack Obama continues to make frequent stops at Ohio universities, where the young adult vote has been one of his strengths.

Some political analysts say it’s a sign that the campaign is starting to wrap up its “persuasion phase,” and moving into final get-out-the-vote efforts, where both sides try to squeeze every vote they can from their bases of support.

“More American adults did not vote at all in the 2008 presidential election than voted for Obama or for McCain,” said Matthew Filipic, visiting professor of political science at Wright State University. “It’s a huge number of people, where even if a small fraction of them could be persuaded to vote, it could tilt things one way or another in a close election.”

And while polls almost unanimously showed Ohio and the nation leaning toward Obama last month, Romney’s debate performance has definitely turned the race back into a close election, both in Ohio and nationally.

Saturday’s trip to The Golden Lamb in Lebanon followed on the heels of Romney visits to Sidney, Dayton and Cincinnati just in the past six weeks.

“Southwest Ohio is a voter-rich environment for the Romney campaign, and if they’re going to win Ohio and win the race, they need big, big turnout,” said Miami University political science professor Patrick Haney. “They need people to be excited and they need … to get them to the polls.”

Phases of the campaign

A senior Romney staffer this summer described the campaign as having a voter identification phase, a persuasion phase and a get-out-the-vote phase. Now Phase 1 is over, and Phases 2 and 3 are starting to overlap.

“It’s late for persuasion, but you’re really in this period where you’re trying to do both. You’re trying to make sure the base gets energized and stays energized,” Haney said.

A strategy memo Thursday from Romney adviser Scott Jennings claimed the campaign is getting more energized, saying they’ve knocked on more and more doors in Ohio each week, topping out at 236,698 in the first week of October.

“Our view is that the race in Ohio is a dead heat, independent voters are moving toward Romney, and Democrats are losing steam and enthusiasm,” Jennings wrote.

Recent polling data backs up that “dead heat” claim. Of the eight post-debate Ohio polls listed by RealClearPolitics.com, six of them show one side or the other leading by one percentage point – well within the margin of error. Overall, Obama leads in five of those polls, and Romney leads in three.

But the Obama campaign obviously disagrees about the enthusiasm.

“The heart of the Obama campaign is and always has been our volunteers and supporters,” said Jessica Kershaw, Ohio spokeswoman for the Obama campaign. “While Republicans are counting on hidden donors cutting million-dollar checks to finish this election, we are focused on building the largest grassroots campaign in Ohio history.”

The Golden Lamb

There are plenty of reasons why Republican candidates visit The Golden Lamb. It’s in a growing Republican-dominated county, it’s owned by the family of Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, and it’s known for the 12 U.S. presidents who have already visited.

John Zimkus, historian for the Warren County Historical Society, said local residents almost expect to see candidates at the Golden Lamb, after Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2004 and John McCain and Sarah Palin in 2008 all spoke to crowds there.

Zimkus said the only Democratic presidential candidate he has record of coming to the Golden Lamb was Martin Van Buren in 1842.

“These (candidates) aren’t coming here because they’re trying to win Lebanon people over,” Zimkus said. “For all intents and purposes they’ve won them over already.”

That raises the question of what Republican candidates have to gain.

“The polls after the last week provide a useful reminder that even if we are more polarized and fixed in our thinking than we might have been a generation ago, things can change that,” Filipic said. There are some persuadable people.”

And Warren County Republican Party Chairman David Nichols said even those who have made up their minds are sometimes looking for reassurance.

“Warren County is a conservative area, but still, the interest level has changed overnight since the debate,” he said. “(A visit) shores up the base more and shows, hey, we’re not taking you for granted.”

Playing to bases and to the middle

Filipic said Obama is doing the same thing with his visits to Columbus, northern Ohio and colleges across the state. His last three Ohio visits were to Bowling Green, Kent State and Ohio State. Obama has an event in Athens - home to Ohio University - on Wednesday.

Filipic said Obama dominated the college-age vote in 2008, but has to shore up support because that demographic does not reliably have high turnout.

“The fact that Obama is not only going to those parts of the state, but going to campuses in those parts of the state reinforces the point,” Filipic said. “He’s trying to mobilize his supporters and increase their turnout rate, because that can prove to be decisive.”

Meanwhile, both sides are trying to balance their bases with making a plea to moderate voters. Romney does so by arguing against Obamacare, which a large majority of Ohioans opposed in a symbolic 2011 vote, and by saying his job creation plan will lift the whole nation. Obama aims for the middle by saying Romney favors the rich at the expense of Ohio’s middle class and will cause the whole nation to repeat past economic mistakes.

Filipic said Ohio might be the single most important state in determining the presidency. Haney said it is especially so for Romney, and that the candidates likely will continue to set up camp in the Buckeye state.

“Not all swing states are alike,” Haney said. “Republicans know well the history here, that without Ohio they don’t have a chance. Whereas without Ohio, Obama still does. Romney’s Electoral College pathways are far more narrow, and they have to have Ohio. That makes them much more motivated to be here.”