Wright-Patterson Air Force Base has scenarios on how it would be impacted if across-the-board reductions are set in motion. Base officials are waiting to see what happens in Congress, said Michael Gessel, vice president of federal government programs for the Dayton Development Coalition.

“They’ve done a great deal of this planning,” he said. “What has not occurred is the Defense Department leadership, the Air Force leadership, has not yet decided what path to take. … It simply is not known what areas are going to be impacted and by how much.”

Wright-Patterson has more than 29,000 military and civilian employees, according to a base analysis last year. A 2010 survey showed 11,635 federal civilian workers and 6,250 contractor and private business employees who work on base.

Army Lt. Col. Elizabeth Robbins, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said the Defense Department has not released details on how sequestration might impact Wright-Patterson or the military. But a study by the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis has projected Ohio could lose 21,280 defense-related jobs because of sequestration.

Sequestration would begin in January if the president and Congress fail to reach a deal on the extension of Bush-era tax cuts and spending cuts. The Pentagon would confront $500 billion in across-the-board reductions over a decade. The U.S. military has agreed to $487 billion in reductions over 10 years as part of past deficit reduction plans.

“I voted against sequestration because I knew we’d be right where we are today — facing devastating cuts to our military, potential job losses at Wright-Patt and a maxed out debt limit,” U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton, said in a statement.

U.S. Rep. Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek, said he voted to repeal the automatic defense cuts and target other areas of the budget to absorb the reductions. That legislation is in the Senate.

Uniformed service members are exempt from manpower reductions, but civilian workers are not.

Those federal civilian defense employees could face rolling furloughs of up to one month beginning in February, according to Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Centers for Budgetary and Strategic Assessments in Washington, D.C.

The report suggested defense sequestration cuts would mean an initial $1.8 billion reduction in the state’s gross domestic product out of a $4 billion total decline.

“If sequestration were to kick in and enacted the way it is right now, those 20,000 (defense-related) jobs would be very difficult to replace,” Austria said in an interview.

The Arlington, Va.-based Aerospace Industries Association commissioned report estimated a loss of nearly 1.1 million defense-related jobs nationwide out of 2.1 million lost.

But how many jobs might be impacted at area defense contractors isn’t known, said G. Scott Coale, director of Dayton area operations at Modern Technology Solutions Inc. and a former president of the Dayton Area Defense Contractors Association.

“There’s just a huge amount of uncertainty because I think people don’t understand what the impact is,” said Coale, a former vice commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson. One concern: If the deep cuts happen this fiscal year, the reductions will happen in nine months instead of a full year since the first quarter has elapsed, he said.

Sequestration’s effect on defense contractors will be delayed, according to Harrison, of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

“Money that has already been obligated on contracts is exempt from sequestration, but all new contract awards, extensions, options, etc. will be reduced by about 10 percent across the board,” he wrote in an email. “So the reduction in contractor workforce will be more gradual over months and years.”

Wright-Patterson ranks among the Air Force’s most vital installations. The Miami Valley base has key missions in acquisition, sustainment, research and development, testing and education. The base is home to the Air Force Material Command, the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the 711th Human Performance Wing, and the Air Force Institute of Technology.

Gessel, who is based in Washington, said there’s a sense the military will not face sequestration, but will confront additional cuts beyond what the Pentagon has agreed to absorb.

“Washington observers generally believe that at some point sequestration will be averted but the timing is not at all clear,” he said. “There is a diminishing hope for a solution this year although there is hope for a stop gap measure but the general thinking is it could take until March before the issue is resolved.”

Read more about those in jeopardy in Ohio:

Fiscal cliff effect on local:   Agriculture  |  Health care  |  National security  | Local/state governments  |  Jobless benefits  |  Financial markets  |  K-12 education  | Colleges and universities

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