Find a job with Journal-News: Local economy expected to grow


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The local economy is expected next year to grow faster than the nation’s economy as a whole, according to the consensus of a group of Cincinnati economists.

But the same experts also say overall output isn’t growing as fast as it used to and slower growth might be the new normal.

The 2016 Regional Economic Outlook was jointly presented Nov. 10 by Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber and Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

Area economists offer their forecasts for the direction of the Cincinnati metropolitan economy at the annual event. This year’s committee members included: Janet Harrah, senior director of Northern Kentucky University’s Center for Economic Analysis and Development; Julie Heath, director of University of Cincinnati’s Economics Center; LaVaughn Henry, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Cincinnati Branch; Drew Spata, an economist for Macy’s Inc.; and Richard Stevie, ‎vice president of forecasting for Integral Analytics.

About 2 percent economic growth a year might be the new normal for the U.S., according to their presentation. The long-term average growth rate is about 3.2 percent for gross domestic product, a wide measure of goods and services produced in the country. But since 1990, growth has averaged 2.4 percent annually.

The economists’ forecast calls for a continuation of slow, steady growth next year in the U.S. of 2.73 percent compared to 2.8 percent for the 15-county Cincinnati area.

The good news for job seekers is that along with predictions for more goods and services to be produced next year, more jobs are expected to be created as well.

Total Cincinnati metro employment is expected to grow by 2.06 percent in 2016, according to the outlook.

Over the next five years, the region including Butler and Warren counties is expected to grow jobs by about 3.5 percent, from employment now of approximately 1,000,342 people to 1,035,642 in 2020. Employment today is about the same as 2007 before the Great Recession took hold.

Cincinnati-area unemployment has hit new lows of about 4.5 percent overall, which is not expected to change much in the coming year, also according to the forecast.

Growth industries include health care and social assistance; professional, scientific and technical services; and management of companies and enterprises.

Industries projected to have the biggest job declines between now and the end of this decade include the government and manufacturing sectors, according to the presentation, which can be found online at www.cincinnatichamber.com/economicoutlook.

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