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What’s at stake in this fall’s election?

GOP riding election ‘wave’

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By William Hershey, Dayton Daily News Updated 11:42 PM Saturday, September 4, 2010

Republican Rob Portman is leading Democrat Lee Fisher in the polls and in fundraising, and that’s a good sign for Republicans if they hope to succeed in what once was the long shot possibility of grabbing control of the Senate from Democrats.

Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to take over. Portman, a former Cincinnati-area U.S. House member, and Fisher, the lieutenant governor, are vying for the seat occupied by Republican George Voinovich, who is retiring. Portman also served as budget director and U.S. trade representative for President George W. Bush.

The outcome is crucial for both parties.

“Without holding the Ohio seat, it is nearly impossible for the GOP to take control of the U.S. Senate,” political scientist John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron, said in an e-mail.

Last week, political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia used his “Crystal Ball” to call the Ohio race “leaning Republican” and projected that Republicans would add eight or nine seats.

Democrats now control Ohio’s delegation to the U.S. House, 10-8. At least five Democratic incumbents – none from the Dayton area – are fighting off strong challenges from Republicans, while no Republican incumbent appears threatened.

Democrats now control the House, 255-178. There are two vacancies, one previously held by each party. Republicans need to pick up 40 seats to take over.

To gain control, Republicans need to pick up at least four Ohio seats, said David Wasserman, House Editor for the Cook Political Report.

Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” projected a 47-seat gain by the GOP, enough for a takeover.

Republican control would put U.S. Rep. John Boehner, R-West Chester, currently the minority leader, in line to become speaker. Boehner would be the first speaker from Ohio since Nicholas Longworth of Cincinnati, who held the gavel from 1925-1931.

Boehner’s district covers parts of east Dayton and Huber Heights as well as Miami, Mercer, Darke, Preble and Butler counties.

All Dayton-area members of Congress are Republicans and appear to be safe.

• U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Centerville is running against Democrat Joe Roberts.

• U.S. Rep. Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek is running against Democrat Bill Connor and third party candidates David Easton and John Anderson.

• U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, is running against Democrat Doug Litt.

• Boehner is facing Democrat Justin Coussoule and third-party candidates James Condit and David Harlow.

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