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Home > Blogs > Ohio politics > Archives > 2008 > March > 05
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Press pack all over Clinton
Hundreds of reporters from across the state and around the globe set up their tripods, microphones and laptops at the Columbus Athenaeum last week to report on Hillary Clinton’s victory speech in Ohio. Satellite trucks lined the block, ready to broadcast her every word out to millions.
The media check-in list reads like an international press club meeting: Reuters, BBC Radio, Norwegian Broadcasting Corp., La Republica, Al Jazeera, News Limited Australia, El Pais, NHK Japan Broadcasting Corp., The Irish Times, Der Spiegel and more.
The Clinton campaign granted credentials to more than 350 journalists for her Ohio primary party.
When it comes to presidential campaigns, journalists come in two tiers: “traveling press” and “local press.” The travelers pay fees to fly on the campaign plane, have meals catered and even have a technician set up wireless systems at every stop. They get reserved seating and riser space at campaign rallies. They got spacious digs in their own room at Clinton’s shin dig in Columbus. Again, they pay the fees.
“Local press” are those that drive themselves, pack their own snacks, jump onto the nationals’ free wireless while they can, and take whatever seat they can get. On Tuesday, their digs were in a freezing cold lobby.
But whether you’re with the Dayton Daily News or ABC News, your bags still get sniffed by security dogs.
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Clinton wins 75 delegates; Obama takes 66
The results aren’t official but it looks like Sen. Hillary Clinton will pick up 75 delegates to the Democratic National Convention and Sen. Barack Obama will gain 66 as the result of voting in the Ohio Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, March 4.
The unofficial results are based on the Ohio Democratic Party’s formula for allocating delegates.
Ohio Democrats will send 141 pledged delegates to the convention. This includes 92 delegates allocated to the state’s 18 congressional districts and 49 at-large delegates awarded based on the statewide outcome of the primary.
Clinton appears likely to pick up 48 delegates in the congressional districts, while Obama is likely to get 44. Of the statewide delegates, Clinton is expected to get 27 and Obama 22.
In the congressional districts, delegates are allocated on a proportional basis. If a district has four delegates, it takes a winning margin of 62.5 percent of more of the vote to get a majority - three. Otherwise, each candidate gets two delegates.
The likely allocation of delegates was based on nearly complete returns that showed Clinton winning 55.2 percent of the vote and Obama 44.8 percent of the vote. The allocation could change slightly as final official returns become known.
The breakdown of delegates by U.S. House district is:
District 1
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 2
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 3
Clinton - 2 Obama - 3
District 4
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 5
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 6
Clinton - 4 Obama -1
District 7
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 8
Clinton - 2 Obama - 2
District 9
Clinton -3 Obama - 3
District 10
Clinton - 4 Obama - 2
District 11
Clinton - 2 Obama - 6
District 12
Clinton - 2 Obama - 3
District 13
Clinton - 3 Obama - 3
District 14
Clinton - 4 Obama - 2
District 15
Clinton -2 Obama -2
District 16
Clinton - 3 Obama - 2
District 17
Clinton - 4 Obama - 3
District 18
Clinton - 3 Obama - 2
Turnout up, according to projections
According to an exit poll by Edison/Mitofsky, estimated turnout for the Ohio Democratic primary was 2.25 million or 26 percent of the voting eligible population. Edison/Mitofsky estimates turnout among Republicans was 1.1 million or 13 percent of the voting eligible population.
How does that jibe with past presidential primaries? In 2004, 1.2 million Ohio Democrats voted and 777,972 Ohio Republicans voted, according to research by professor Michael McDonald at George Mason University. The number represented 28 percent of the voting-eligible population.
In 2000 - the last time both parties had contested primaries - 978,512 Democrats voted and 1.36 million Republicans voted - 30.6 percent.
Add up Edison/Mitofsky’s estimates, and it appears 39 percent of the population voted.
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner estimated 52 percent of voters would turn out on Election Day. Early Wednesday, it was too soon to tell what the official turnout was.
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Working class turn out for Clinton
Exit polls indicate that Sen. Hillary Clinton’s appeal to working class voters worked Tuesday, March 4, with middle-class voters and voters without college degrees supporting her at higher levels than they supported Sen. Barack Obama.
Among voters whose household income was less than $50,000 in 2007, 56 percent supported Clinton, while Obama only garnered 42 percent of their support. Voters whose household income was $50,000 or more also were more likely to back Clinton, giving her 52 percent support compared to Obama’s 47 percent. Voters whose household income was $100,000 or higher split evenly between the two.
Voters who received only a high school diploma were also more likely to back Clinton, supporting her 65 percent to Obama’s 33 percent. Voters who received some college or an associate degree also were more likely to back Clinton, giving her 52 percent support to Obama’s 47 percent. College graduates, meanwhile, split 50-50 on the two, while postgraduates backed Obama 53 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent.
Of the 1,162 Democratic voters polled by Edison/Mitofsky, 34 percent came from a household that included a union member and 66 percent did not. Of those in union households, 18 percent of voters polled were union members and 15 percent had another family member in their household.
Republicans of all incomes supported Sen. John McCain overwhelmingly, meanwhile, with households earning between $50,000 and $74,999 supporting him the most - he received 62 percent of their support. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who conceded Tuesday night, did slightly better among voters who lived in households earning less than $50,000. Voters earning $100,000 or more backed McCain 64 percent to Huckabee’s 30 percent.
The Republican poll surveyed 777 voters in the state.
McCain also did well with voters from all educational backgrounds, winning among high school graduates and postgraduates alike.
Despite conservative criticism, most voters say McCain “about right” on issues
Sen. John McCain beat former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee Tuesday, March 4, among all age groups as well as men and women, according to exit polls by Edison/Mitofsky.
McCain especially did well among voters over the age of 60 - 65 percent supported him, while 24 percent supported Huckabee. Huckabee conceded Tuesday night.
Forty-four percent of Republican voters polled considered themselves born again Christians, and 42 percent of Republican voters considered the economy the number one issue facing the country. Twenty-two percent considered Iraq the top issue facing the country, while 17 percent listed immigration and 17 considered terrorism their top issue.
And despite heavy criticism from some conservatives within his party, 46 percent considered McCain’s positions on the issues “about right.” Forty percent of voters, meanwhile, said he was not conservative enough.
Fifty-five percent of voters said they did not consider the views of talk radio hosts important, while 37 percent said they did.
McCain’s age - he is 71 - was also not an overwhelming concern for Republican voters. Eighty percent of voters polled said they did not consider his age an important factor in their vote.
The poll, of 777 Republicans, also had McCain receiving heavy support in southwest Ohio. He received 61 percent support to Huckabee’s 33 percent.
Democratic exit poll shows echoes of 1992
Once again, it’s the economy, stupid.
Sen. Hillary Clinton won Ohio Tuesday, March 4 after campaigning on the same issues that won her husband the White House in 1992: the state of the nation’s - and Ohio’s - economy.
The economy was the top issue for Republicans and Democrats alike in the state, according to an Edison/Mitosfky exit poll of voters in the state taken Tuesday.
Democrats overwhelmingly said that U.S. trade policy has cost the state jobs and that they worried about their family’s financial situation. Republicans, meanwhile, said the state of the nation’s economy is either not good or poor.
And among Democrats, voters who viewed the economy as the nation’s most pressing issue were also more likely to vote for Clinton than Obama. The poll found 56 percent of voters most concerned about the economy supported Clinton, and 41 percent supported Obama.
Voters who believed that U.S. trade policy had cost the state jobs were also more likely to back Clinton than Obama - but so were voters who believed that U.S. trade policy creates jobs.
The exit poll found that southwest Ohio voters were slightly more likely to vote for Clinton than Obama giving her 51 percent to his 49 percent.
The poll projected that she would win in every region of the state except northwest Ohio and Toledo, which backed Obama 49 percent to Clinton’s 48 percent.
Fifty-nine percent of Democrats said the economy was the most important issue facing the country, while 19 percent said Iraq and health care was the most important issue, respectively. And 78 percent of Democrats polled said they were either very or somewhat worried about their family’s financial situation over the next year.
Twenty-four percent of voters believed that Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly during the campaign, while eight percent said Obama did. Twenty-nine percent said both bashed the other unfairly, while 35 percent said neither did.
The sample of 1,612 voters also found that Democratic voters in Ohio overwhelmingly viewed change as more important than experience.
Forty-five percent of voters polled said they believed it was more important to vote for a candidate who can bring about needed change. Twenty-nine percent said they supported voters who had the right experience.
