Thurgood Marshall graduation 2012
Badin vs. Versailles
Law Enforcement Memorial Day
Home > Blogs > Sir Critic on Cinema > Archives > 2009 > January > 26 > Entry
The SAG awards: How will they affect the Oscars?
So how do Sunday night’s SAG awards bode for the Oscars next month? Let’s run down the races and see:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
It’s a bit hard to gauge who the Oscar winner will be based on the victor; Winslet is nominated in the lead category at the Oscars for The Reader (although it should have been for her superior work in Revolutionary Road). Cruz was considered an early favorite for her work in Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but she lost to Winslet at both the Globes and the SAGs. With Winslet out of the way at the Oscars, Cruz still has an excellent shot - but I would not be at all surprised to see Viola Davis win for her short but memorable turn in Doubt. The fact that she has so little screen time actually helps her - see Beatrice Straight in Network or Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love.
I don’t give Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), or (sniff) Amy Adams (Doubt) much of a shot - I think it’s Cruz or Davis. I’ll say Cruz for now, but I might change my mind.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
By this point, I’d bet the Academy wouldn’t lose any money if they went ahead and put Ledger’s name on the statuette now. I just don’t see him missing at this point. Very nice acceptance speech by Dark Knight co-star Gary Oldman.
BEST ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt
This might have surpised some people who expected Winslet to be a double winner as she was at the Globes, but I wasn’t surprised - Streep hadn’t won for a theatrical movie at SAG. And guess what? At the Oscars, she hasn’t won since Sophie’s Choice, all the way back in 1983. The idea of the Academy wanting to award her for the first time in 26 years is not out of the question.
That said, there is the matter of Winslet, who still hasn’t won anything despite being so consistently excellent. My money is still on Kate, but I would NOT rule Streep out. And by the way, Streep’s “OMG! Me????” speech was the highlight of the show. (“I didn’t even wear a dress!”)
BEST ACTOR: Sean Penn, Milk
I have repeatedly voiced dissent about Milk on this blog, but NOT about Penn’s performance. His portrayal of the San Francisco legend is among his very best work. Since he hadn’t won at SAG before, his victory was easy to figure.
However, he did win recently at the Oscars (for Mystic River) so his victory there is less assured. For the Oscars, I favor Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) or Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler). I lean more toward Rourke, since Oscar loves a comeback.
BEST CAST: Slumdog Millionaire
Can we PLEASE stop referring to this wonderful movie as an underdog now? By this point, it’s becoming an overdog, if anything. Its crowning at the Oscars seems virtually inevitable at this point, and that’s fine by me.
We’ll see how it all pans out at the Oscars Feb. 22. What did you think of the winners? The show? Whom would you like to see go on to win the Oscars?
Permalink | Comments (1) | Post your comment | Categories: Movie awards
Comments
By Allie D.
January 26, 2009 12:36 PM | Link to this
Oh I really am pulling for Slumdog for Best Picture and Director now, not to mention every other category in which it’s nominated. What a gorgeous film this was!