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Home > Blogs > Sir Critic on Cinema > Archives > 2007 > January > 10 > Entry
How the (pre) Oscar race is shaping up
The various critics groups and movie guilds have been handing out their film awards. See this page for a roundup of all the nominations. I’ve drawn a number of conclusions from these lists so far.
1. “Letters” is fading, “Sunshine” is rising.
With a snub by the producer’s guild, and a little more surprisingly, the director’s guild, Clint Eastwood and his movie “Letters from Iwo Jima” are looking like also-rans. The disappointing box office so far of “Letters” isn’t helping matters either - and that’s in limited release. If it doesn’t play in limited release, it’s not going to play wide.
It is possible that the director’s branch of the Academy may still go for Eastwood as a pat on the back for making two ambitious films on the same subject (the other being the long-faded “Flags of Our Fathers”). But it’s far from sure.
In fact, the Academy directors, who have always been nervier than the guilds (they nominated Scorsese for “The Last Temptation of Christ”), may see fit to nominate Paul Greengrass, who made “United 93,” for being brave enough to be the first to direct a 9-11 theatrical feature - and doing it very, very well.
Meanwhile, “Little Miss Sunshine” keeps showing up in lists, with the directing team of Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris taking the DGA slot that was presumably meant for Eastwood. It’s definitely in the final five for Oscar, though I’m not sure about the directors.
With “Babel” hanging in there as well, I now expect the Best Picture Oscar nominees to look like this: “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” “The Queen” This would match up with the directors’ and producers’ guilds’ choices.
Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere floats the interesting theory that “Little Miss Sunshine” could win because people adore it. That may be, but Academy members are loving “Dreamgirls” as well. And I think Wells, who somewhat grudgingly likes “Dreamgirls,” may be expressing a little wish fulfillment here. I still expect it to win the Oscar.
2. Category fraud stinks
The Screen Actors Guild nominated Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor for his role in “The Departed.”
Oh, really? Whom, exactly, is he supporting? He and Matt Damon are the equal co-leads. This is just stupid maneuvering by Warner Bros. to get DiCaprio in for both “The Departed” and his strong but less amazing work in “Blood Diamond.” (WB made both.) SAG and The Academy pulled the same crock with Jamie Foxx when they said he was a supporting actor in “Collateral,” even though he’s the central character of the film.
Heck, the Brits are doing it too, by putting Anne Hathaway in consideration for a Supporting Actress nod for “The Devil Wears Prada.” in the BAFTA awards (the British Oscars). It’s Hathaway’s character’s story, gang! You’re driving me NUTS!
Listen well, folks: the flashier performance by the more veteran actor is NOT necessarily THE lead.
3. The Producer’s Guild has questionable taste in animated films
How else to explain the omission of “Over the Hedge” in favor of the uninspired and sometimes stupid “Ice Age: The Meltdown”?
4. Put half of Hollywood in your movie, and people will vote for it.
Why? Because they live with the people in the movie or know someone who does. How else to explain the SAG ensemble nomination for “Bobby,” which very few people seem to think is a good movie?
What do you think of the awards race so far?
Permalink | Comments (3) | Categories: Movie awards
Comments
By Zack
January 10, 2007 3:04 PM | Link to this
You know, I didn’t think this until just now, but all of a sudden I see Marty and THE DEPARTED winning both director AND picture. You heard it here first…By ME
January 10, 2007 1:34 PM | Link to this
I’ve seen both Ice Age II and Over the Hedge. Over the Hedge is a superior animation and creative story. I think they are nuts who do they know on the Ice Age film? That’s pretty pathetic. Ice Age was cute, but its just not in the same category. Hopefully the Academy won’t nominate Ice Age!!!!By Allie D
January 10, 2007 12:37 PM | Link to this
I was starting to think that the awards were beginning to gravitate away from games of Hollywood politics, but I’m not so sure just yet. Ice Age for a Producer’s Guild award?? Are they out of their effing MINDS?? I just want Marty to win his Oscar. I don’t care what else happens, really.